What's the good word, GA Piedmont? Hope it's good out there.
So we had an election this here past Tuesday.
First off, on the national level, I really don't care.
So a socialist won the New York City mayoral race. So what? What is interesting, though, is this: based on polling data approx 8% of his votes came from folks who voted for Trump last year. That kind of makes sense as Mamdani ran a true populist campaign.
Plus, it's New York.
And then Dems winning in Dem states. Not much of surprise there.
State of GA
Hate to rain on the parade of some of the partisans who are hailing the two PSC races as proof of a fundamental, transformative sea change of Georgia politics. That, this was not.
What is was, though, was this: two statewide races being held in an off-year due to the lawsuit which caused them to push this election back a year (which also cost the Libertarian Party of GA its ballot status as a political body meaning they've lost access for statewide elections for the time being).
It was also an instance of the Democratic Party of GA treating these races as vital, and really getting out the vote, while I think both GOP campaigns as well as the state party apparatus figured these were given wins (a theme we will revisit) & didn't put in the necessary work.
Well, that obviously wasn't the case & should've been figured as such. Strong anti-incumbent sentiment out there w/ the ever-increasing utility rates we've been seeing combined w/ the aforementioned lack of urgency made both of the races foregone conclusions in my opinion.
So now let's get to the good stuff.
The Home City of Covington
The two west ward races were not at all surprising. If this had been four or two years ago, Scotty, definitely, and maybe even Johnson, could've had an outside shot. But times have changed.
When the westside Henderson Machine saw a seat slip away two years ago, they were already planning for last Tuesday.
There would be no overlooking anything this time around. The machine mobilized and they got out the vote. Bigly.
Furthermore, I believe the plan of attack was:
Oh, y'all gonna steal a seat from us? We'll return in kind.
Which leads us to...
East Ward, Post 1
My, my, my. What can you say?
At first glance this was a real shocker. Dwayne Turner besting Donny Cook 52% to 48%.
But in actuality, it was not a shocker.
As I just mentioned, there was a coordinated effort for the JC crew to pick up an east ward seat.
They found a very solid candidate. Turner has a good resume & apparently knew a good number of folks in town who were very much impressed w/ him.
Add that to the fact that Mr. Turner seemed to've had a complete political transformation where all of the sudden he was - at least based on his rhetoric - the most fiscally conservative candidate who's ever run for office in the history of Covington. Then, running a strong, grassroots-driven campaign, and he was able to kind of steal one here.
Gotta tip your hat. No doubt.
With all of that said, there was no good reason for Donny Cook to have not won this race, other than the following.
And look, let me just say this, up until a few months ago I had never met Donny & did not know who he was. He reached out & I got to know him pretty good. We've had multiple conversations.
I think he's a good fella w/ a good heart who had good intentions & is definitely a fiscal conservative. I think he would've been a good councilman.
Now, was he the ideal candidate?
Well, no. The ideal candidate was Lee Mayfield who, even w/ all of the circumstances & dynamics in play, would've won by probably at least 10 percentage points.
However, for a particular reason, he didn't run.
Donny stepped up. And that's a big deal. And I thank him & salute him for having done so.
So how did a race that should've been won by 10 points get lost by 4 points.
Well, remember what I talked about w/ the PSC races?
In my opinion, it was assumed by the Cook camp that this election was a given. That a basic campaign was all that was needed.
That simply wasn't the case.
So an early lack of urgency kind of set the stage for things. About a month ago is when some started sounding the alarm & actions were taken accordingly.
Cook did win election day, but the early voting sealed his fate.
W/ local races, there is no substitute for old-school, real-deal REAL Politick. Specifically canvassing - door-to-door. A better job w/ that would've probably netted the 2+ percentage points needed for the W.
And there were other things that could've made the difference. One direct mail piece might've done it. Two definitely would've, in my opinion. An endorsement from the current office holder. Ditto. Any one or especially a combination of the aforementioned probably gives a different result.
Oh well. Would've, could've, should've.
Once we get to January it'll certainly be a different dynamic on the council. Think we'll probably see a fair number of tied 3-3 votes. If such is the case, then Fleeta's the tie-breaker.
Is what it is. We shall see.
'til next time,
- MBM
