11 April 2020

[Fred Wheeler] - Close Enough for Government Work

The first time I heard it was 51 years ago at Ft.Hood, Texas.. Lt. Vaught of B Battery was laying the battery of six 155mm howitzers. He closed up the aiming circle and with some satisfaction said, "That's close enough for government work." I suppose the people who put the models together predicting anywhere from 2 million to 150,000 American deaths from the Wuhan Virus and the people who pay them $millions of dollars for this must think that's close enough. There's a palm reader near Conyers on I-20 who probably could be more precise and she only charges 10 bucks.

The Media gleefully announced Friday that the Virus, at 1,904 per day, is now the leading cause of daily American deaths. They better enjoy it while they can because this phenomenon won't last long. Heart attacks kill 1,774 per day and cancer deaths are 1,641. The CDC is predicting that now the grand total for the Virus is projected to be 61,000. That's far short of the annual totals of 647,457 for heart attacks and 599,108 for cancer. The regular flu total is 55,672.

Some claim that the official tally is under counting the true mortality figures; others counter that they are overstating the numbers. I have a solution. It's somewhat imprecise, but we've already determined that of all the adjectives associated with the Virus (terrible, vicious, tragic, pandemic, apocalyptic) precise is not one of them.

It's reported that people who die at home are not being counted--only those who succumb in the hospital. We also hear that people who are dying in nursing homes and hospitals with underlying conditions are summarily added to the Virus total. They  are reported to get paid more for that--even more if the patient has been on a respirator.

We know that approximately 2,500,000 Americans die each year (this does not include those killed in abortion clinics). As we've said, 647,457 from heart attacks, 599,108 from cancer, 169,936 from accidents, 146,383 from stroke, 55,672 from the flu, 47,173 from suicide, all the way to 800 from getting tangled up in their bed sheets. If you divide 2.5 million by 365 days you get 6,849 per day.

So, excluding the Wuhan Virus, we should expect 6,849 people to die of something daily anyway. Even though we don't know exactly what the causes are, we do have a pretty good idea of the total number of deaths. People are not disposing of the bodies without the authorities knowledge. If all of a sudden we start seeing a diminution in the numbers of deaths attributed to heart attack, cancer, stroke, etc., we probably can assume that these causes are being under counted in favor of the Virus. We are dealing with large numbers, so if the numbers are significant, it will be obvious. We can adjust the figures and subtract from the total and that would approximate the true Virus total.

Likewise,if people actually are dying of the Virus, but their deaths are being chalked up to heart attack, cancer, stroke, bed sheets, etc. we can tell because their daily totals will exceed the 1,774, 1,641, etc. We can adjust them, subtract from the total and add to the figures for the Virus. This won't be exact, but it probably will be just as close as these "adjusted" models. And, a ten year old with a calculator can come up with the figures instead of an expensive logarithm on a university computer. It'll be close enough for government work.