02 November 2020

Ellis Millsaps: Dewey Defeats Truman

 


We hear a lot of talk from both parties that the results of the coming election may not be known

for several days after November 3rd. I say this election will be over before “election day” and it

will be a landslide of historic proportions for Joe Biden and Democrats at large.

I'm writing this essay not as a partisan but as a political observer. You would certainly be on

solid ground to question how my pro -Democrat bias shades my objectivity, but I've been

historically pretty good at this. I base my predictions on my study of the real news. ( I haven't

logged onto Facebook in over five years.)

We could know, for all practical purposes, the results of this election on election night. That is

because of two states: Florida and North Carolina. Unlike most states, these two have

mechanisms in place to tally mail-in ballots as soon as the polls close. Trump loses either of

these states it's over.

Florida and North Carolina aside, Biden has consistently maintained substantial leads in the

three rust belt states Trump flipped the last time: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Biden sweeps those states and it's all over. Stick a fork in it.

On top of all that, Texas, Ohio,Georgia and Arizona are toss-ups with Biden polling a slim lead

in the latter two. These are all states Trump carried comfortably in 2016.

Democrats appear to be increasing their lead in the house and look likely to take a senate

majority. Races in Maine, Colorado, and Arizona look solidly Democratic while they also hold

small leads in North Carolina and Iowa. Victories in those States alone shift the majority and we haven't even considered the tossups. It is possible that next year South Carolina will have two African-American senators, Montana may have two Democrats, Mississippi a black one and Georgia senators may be a Jew and a black preacher-- although we'll have to wait for a January runoff. The landslide will come about because while he's made negligible efforts to expand his base, Trump's base has been shrinking. That base is composed largely of three groups: xenophobes, white evangelicals, and people who have always voted for anything with an R in front of it.

The first group is largely older white people who are afraid of dark-skinned people running their

government. Turns out they're more afraid of not seeing their grandchildren and dying alone.

The second group is largely composed of single issue voters-- the right to life-- who otherwise

are disgusted by the president’s character. I think Mitch McConnell made a serious mistake in

getting his Supreme Court nominee affirmed before the election, if winning the election is his

major concern, but it may not be. He may have foreseen Trump's loss and wants to get his court locked in before some lame duck Republicans maybe change their minds. If I'm that single issue voter I have no reason to vote for Trump now because I've already won. My team owns the court.


Finally the R voters. They have left Trump in significant numbers. Witness groups like The

Lincoln project and prominent Republicans who have endorsed Biden.

Then there’s the record turnout Republicans have been so desperate to avoid because they see it favoring Democrats. On top of that we’re seeing a huge increase in young voters, a group that heavily supports Biden.

As to the scheme advanced by some for Republican state legislators to substitute Trump elector slates for the winning Biden ones, that ain't happening. When it becomes apparent that Trump has lost, those Republican legislators will be like the flying monkeys after Dorothy killed the witch.

After the dust clears I'll be back to talk about the effects of the landslide, what Ted Cruz and

Ben Sasse call the ”Republican bloodbath” on our body politic, or else I'll start eating some major crow. 


- Ellis Millsaps


5 comments:

  1. I'm sure glad you didn't write this as a partisan. First, the polls are nothing but a construct by the left to suppress the Republican vote. The internals are weighted toward Democrats and their demographics. I know people who are probably going to vote for Biden and I know people who are going to vote for Trump. They ALL made up their minds long ago. "Undecideds" are unicorns.
    Texas, North Carolina and Georgia are not toss-up states. The turnout in Miami/Dade and Sumter Counties indicate a Trump win in Florida (if Trump carries Sumter by 70% he will carry the state).
    Pennsylvania will be decided by all the dead people who vote in Philadelphia. The Democrats will lose Michigan to Trump and a Senate seat to James. The Democrat in Minnesota is at risk. The Republicans will pick up House seats.
    The red wave is coming.

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  2. Da, it would appear that you and I, with our divergent predictions, have jammed the election. Save the crow. I'm looking into our flights to Rio...

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    Replies
    1. Perrin, did you say something after "Rio"? I would love to go to Rio. I think you and could score with some senoritas

      Delete
    2. Yeah, so all I could find was a banana cargo ship. I was just thinking of escaping Bush v. Gore 2.0, but this senoritas idea cements it! We're there!

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